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      10-12-2012, 05:51 AM   #23
wcinvest
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True I'm not factoring in cost of maint/repairs over the last 2 years, 20k. If you're good/lucky you won't need brakes in that time. Barring something else major failing I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about- depending on the model/complexity. $500-$700 on a couple more visits seems reasonable. Any tire I've owned is pretty well shot after 30k- I don't know what their allowance on this is but I'm pretty sure they don't take baldinis. Yes, the longer you keep the more you'll save generally but years 7-9 could be scary/expensive when heavier major components start to fail.

Question wc: What are your payments on your X1s? 36k over 9 on three consecutive leases is $333/mo all in- you either got the best lease deal ever or you're in some serious denial. You're already talking about loyalty and a CCA rebate that doesn't exist yet I'm guessing when you turn the car in early- probably even worse financially. Your numbers are extremely optimistic. My point on taxes is that the portion paid on two leases plus two bank fees is equal to or greater than that of one purchase of a like-kind over 6 and not even close in states where the trade-in value is deducted off your new car's taxable amount. Oh, lest I forget the $350 disposition fee when you turn in. So, 2k in fees on two leases plus tax on about half of the car, 2/5s of the car, its still more regardless.

When it comes to $, leasing=losing with one exception- if you can deduct it as an expense.
Sorry for the length of this post, I hope it helps someone in the lease vs buy decision. If you buy the car which I plan to do before selling it or lease another BMW, there is no $350 disposition fee at all.

My payments on the lease are $349 per month which includes 8.75% tax. I put down the max 7 security deposits which I will get back and a little more cash.

My current residual value and lease payment is based upon a 3 year 36000 mile lease but I do expect to drive the car less then that which will help my resale value.

Before going into additional details, let me give you my recent car history which shows you how frugal I am and how good I am at getting cars that retain their value whether buying used or new. In 1996, I bought a 1987 Toyota Corolla used for a very low price with around 72,000 miles. I drove it a little over 50,000 miles in 5 years before finally upgrading. It's depreciation in those 5 years was less then $4000 and maintenance was ridiculously low as well.

My last two cars after that Corolla were a 2001 VW GTI 1.8T, a brand new design that year, and 2008 Jetta 2.0T Wolfsburg. The Jetta was a new value edition model with the Audi 2.0T engine and DSG transmission. Thanks to a $1000 rebate as a returning VW customer, I paid roughly $22,000 for that 2008 Jetta after taxes. 66,000 miles later I expect to sell it for at least $12500 and probably a little bit more based upon everything I am seeing in my local area. So basically $9500 in depreciation for driving the car 66,000 miles. I did even better with my GTI.

I don't expect even lightly optioned X1's to be quite as good as my last two purchased cars in percentage terms since near luxury cars don't do as well in general but it should still be excellent for a variety of factors I've outlined previously.

In your calculations of buying, you have to also factor in what you could have done with that money investing it. I'm pretty good investing and can get a 6-7% return fairly easily before taxes without that much risk.

My expected payments including down payments is roughly $14,500 for the lease but that figure assumes an _absurdly low_ in my estimation $20,200 residual value. Remember, I did much better then expected depreciation on my last two new cars. I factored in another $1500 for my airfare to do ED, hotel expense and a tank of tank of gas in Germany. (Frankly this $1500 number is actually lower in my particular case but I'm calling it $1500 since the American Express points that I'm using have value) (I am not staying in luxurious hotels) So, that is $16000 spent over 3 years if you believe BMWs residual value percentage which is a little more accurate for heavily optioned X1 cars then lightly optioned cars like mine.

I believe in late September 2015, a lightly optioned BMW X1 with Navigation and satellite radio with around 30,000 miles sold private party will fetch roughly $24,000 via Craigslist in the San Francisco Bay area and not $20,200. And I will be pocketing that $3800 difference. Remember, the X1's will have had 2 or 3 price increases by BMW during that time period. So, if my figure is correct, I would have only spent $12000 to lease the X1 for 3 years and I will have had a nice trip to Germany/Europe thrown in as well. This $12,000 figure would be much worse then what I did on my previous two new cars so given my past history, I don't think its a crazy number at all. In 2015 if a brand new X1 with navigation/satellite radio is going for 34,000 new which it should be in that ballpark given modest price increases by BMW, I think there will be some used car buyers willing to pay around $24,000 for used model with just 30,000 miles.

And my next 1 or 2 leases, should be at least $1250 lower in today's dollars since I will qualify for the BMW CCA rebate which isn't available on the X1 right now but should be available in about 6-12 months and BMW's $750 returning customer rebate that they run all of the time. I actually may even qualify for a 3rd rebate/option credit since I am going to graduate school on a part time basis and BMW occasionally has rebates geared towards college graduates like they did in the late summer of this year.

I actually did a decent amount of analysis to come up with the residual figure of $24,000 including looking at 2009 328's still under warranty with around 30,000 miles. And I'm extremely confident that the X1 28i's will have better real world residual value then the typical 2009 328i's do today.

The Bay area is absolutely flooded with 328i's and when my X1 is coming off of lease in 2015, it will be one of the relatively few X1's sold private party in the entire area.
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      10-12-2012, 08:03 AM   #24
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Wow, lot going there. Lot of assumptions/projections being made that I do hope work out for you but just one question:
How did you get 349/mo including 8.75% tax with 12k/yr when its advertised at 399 with 10k/yr BEFORE tax and including a loyalty rebate you didn't get? What was your msrp? What was your refundable/non-refundable down payment? PM me about your low risk 7%
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      10-12-2012, 03:44 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Monterra View Post
Wow, lot going there. Lot of assumptions/projections being made that I do hope work out for you but just one question:
How did you get 349/mo including 8.75% tax with 12k/yr when its advertised at 399 with 10k/yr BEFORE tax and including a loyalty rebate you didn't get? What was your msrp? What was your refundable/non-refundable down payment? PM me about your low risk 7%
My fully refundable security deposit was $2450 and that lowered my interest rate/money factor. Invoice price on Euro delivery cars is perhaps around 8% lower then US invoice and you do not have to pay MACO or training fees on Euro delivery cars so you have to factor that in. And the advertised leases on US delivery cars aren't even the best deals you can get since they typically are a couple of thousands dollars over US delivery invoice and a bit more based upon MSRP prices...nevermind Euro delivery invoice. When you factor in that I won't have to pay my second lease payment thanks to the increased money factor on Euro delivery cars to cover the car while its being shipped from Europe, the total I put down that I won't be getting back was between $1500 to $2000. I don't want to give all my exact numbers since I told my car advisor that I wouldn't.

As for my rather low risk -- certainly not no risk -- 6 or 7%, I buy a couple of different stable stocks that pay decent very sustainable dividends -- usually around 3% -- but I write somewhat deep covered calls against the underlying stock for 1 plus year into the future which dramatically limits my upside to usually only around 6-9% of my initial investment but it also does a great job limiting my downside especially considering I only buy stocks that I wouldn't mind owning long term. For giving someone the right to purchase my shares at a set price which is below the price I paid for the shares, I get paid a premium for it so that is how my return ends up higher then the 3-4% dividend rate. I can honestly state that I have never lost when trying this approach but I fully recognize the risks involved and that I would (probably) lose in the short term if the stock market crashed like it did in 2008.

A company that I could recommend doing this approach right now is perhaps Microsoft. Microsoft's revenue is very stable and not heavily dependent upon a single product. With Microsoft even if you somehow lost on the buying the stock and writing covered calls over the next 1-2 years and were left holding the stock after it crashed to say $20 a share in a massive stock market correction, it is a sound enough long term investment with a fortress balance sheet that I'm incredibly confident you will make your money back.

I know quite a bit about software and the IT industry and let me state, the chances of Microsoft Windows being replaced on corporate desktops within the next 10 years is very close to 0%. They have already owned this market for over 30 years. This desktop business that includes Microsoft Office and some related businesses like Sharepoint and SQL Server are a huge cash cow for Microsoft and it allows them to continue to make lots of money even when they fail in some other areas.

Even though I still own some shares, I could not recommend Apple in a covered call strategy since their revenue is too dependent on one product, the iPhone which realistically could continue to lose market share over the next 5 years to Android devices.
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      10-12-2012, 04:43 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wcinvest
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monterra View Post
Wow, lot going there. Lot of assumptions/projections being made that I do hope work out for you but just one question:
How did you get 349/mo including 8.75% tax with 12k/yr when its advertised at 399 with 10k/yr BEFORE tax and including a loyalty rebate you didn't get? What was your msrp? What was your refundable/non-refundable down payment? PM me about your low risk 7%
My fully refundable security deposit was $2450 and that lowered my interest rate/money factor. Invoice price on Euro delivery cars is perhaps around 8% lower then US invoice and you do not have to pay MACO or training fees on Euro delivery cars so you have to factor that in. And the advertised leases on US delivery cars aren't even the best deals you can get since they typically are a couple of thousands dollars over US delivery invoice and a bit more based upon MSRP prices...nevermind Euro delivery invoice. When you factor in that I won't have to pay my second lease payment thanks to the increased money factor on Euro delivery cars to cover the car while its being shipped from Europe, the total I put down that I won't be getting back was between $1500 to $2000. I don't want to give all my exact numbers since I told my car advisor that I wouldn't.

As for my rather low risk -- certainly not no risk -- 6 or 7%, I buy a couple of different stable stocks that pay decent very sustainable dividends -- usually around 3% -- but I write somewhat deep covered calls against the underlying stock for 1 plus year into the future which dramatically limits my upside to usually only around 6-9% of my initial investment but it also does a great job limiting my downside especially considering I only buy stocks that I wouldn't mind owning long term. For giving someone the right to purchase my shares at a set price which is below the price I paid for the shares, I get paid a premium for it so that is how my return ends up higher then the 3-4% dividend rate. I can honestly state that I have never lost when trying this approach but I fully recognize the risks involved and that I would (probably) lose in the short term if the stock market crashed like it did in 2008.

A company that I could recommend doing this approach right now is perhaps Microsoft. Microsoft's revenue is very stable and not heavily dependent upon a single product. With Microsoft even if you somehow lost on the buying the stock and writing covered calls over the next 1-2 years and were left holding the stock after it crashed to say $20 a share in a massive stock market correction, it is a sound enough long term investment with a fortress balance sheet that I'm incredibly confident you will make your money back.

I know quite a bit about software and the IT industry and let me state, the chances of Microsoft Windows being replaced on corporate desktops within the next 10 years is very close to 0%. They have already owned this market for over 30 years. This desktop business that includes Microsoft Office and some related businesses like Sharepoint and SQL Server are a huge cash cow for Microsoft and it allows them to continue to make lots of money even when they fail in some other areas.

Even though I still own some shares, I could not recommend Apple in a covered call strategy since their revenue is too dependent on one product, the iPhone which realistically could continue to lose market share over the next 5 years to Android devices.



NEW POST


Ugh, for fear of hihacking my own thread, please forgive me. Look, Apple has meat on its bones.

Microsoft, on the other hand does not. Yes, companies use the Microsoft desktop and there is a vigorous movement to virtualize the desktop too.

Doesn't the fact that you can easily virtualize 200 Microsoft desktops on two redundant blade servers tell you a lot about the emptiness of the Microsoft desktop?

Today, very few things run natively on the windows desktop. Most people use the Microsoft desktop for email access and browser access. Excepting for some heavy duty photoshoppers, the Microsoft desktop offers nothing much.

Now, turn to apple. It is all unix based. The spoke desktop is clean, efficient, and beautiful. Not to mention, you can run your cruddy windows inside your apple as a VM. You cannot, however, run the apple OS inside of a windows box. That alone says a lot about the crappiness of windows.

Microsoft has failed at just about every attempt at new technology. Why? Because it always ties some critical element to some closed Microsoft protocol.

Anyway, Microsoft is a has been. Their cash will eventually dwindle and some final scam will be exposed that will eventually destroy what's left.

Maybe apple is too costly right now for investment, but that's no reason to blow your money on a company on the verge of a sunset.
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      10-12-2012, 10:51 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by BMWrules7 View Post
NEW POST


Ugh, for fear of hihacking my own thread, please forgive me. Look, Apple has meat on its bones.

Microsoft, on the other hand does not. Yes, companies use the Microsoft desktop and there is a vigorous movement to virtualize the desktop too.

Doesn't the fact that you can easily virtualize 200 Microsoft desktops on two redundant blade servers tell you a lot about the emptiness of the Microsoft desktop?

Today, very few things run natively on the windows desktop. Most people use the Microsoft desktop for email access and browser access. Excepting for some heavy duty photoshoppers, the Microsoft desktop offers nothing much.

Now, turn to apple. It is all unix based. The spoke desktop is clean, efficient, and beautiful. Not to mention, you can run your cruddy windows inside your apple as a VM. You cannot, however, run the apple OS inside of a windows box. That alone says a lot about the crappiness of windows.

Microsoft has failed at just about every attempt at new technology. Why? Because it always ties some critical element to some closed Microsoft protocol.

Anyway, Microsoft is a has been. Their cash will eventually dwindle and some final scam will be exposed that will eventually destroy what's left.

Maybe apple is too costly right now for investment, but that's no reason to blow your money on a company on the verge of a sunset.
Sorry for continuing to get off topic so if you want to read about the X1 ignore this post.

I suspect Microsoft to have around 95% of the desktop market worldwide so they must be doing something right. On the other hand, Apple iPhone has actually been losing market share rather dramatically to Android for every iPhone now sold, there are 3 or 4 Android phones sold.

Even if desktop virtualization unexpectedly takes off, Microsoft still gets all of their licensing fees. Within Windows desktop environments, there has been virtualization such as Citrix farms for many years. From what I've seen within various IT organizations, it only increases Microsoft's sales since users still have their own Windows desktop which is licensed and then they pay for an additional Citrix/Microsoft licenses.

Very little things run natively on Windows desktop? Companies like SAP and Oracle -- two of the biggest software providers in the world -- have huge installed bases using some of their desktop applications. And obviously Microsoft Office(Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Visio, Outlook etc.) is basically on 85%+ of corporate desktop computers.

It is simply untrue in a corporate setting that the desktop is just a browser and email. Go into literally any pharmaceutical company or biotech or financial services companies today and you will see many different desktop applications that are not web based.

The last company I worked had well over 100+ different desktop applications for under 300 employees. I personally worked with 25+ over them at one time or another. Not every employee had every application but most of these application only ran on Windows XP or Windows 7. When a software vendor only expects to sell an application to 3-20 users at a company or they want the best performance, they often do not make it web based and they don't bother supporting Mac OSX.

In addition, Microsoft has the whole Xbox franchise which shows they can do well in new market segments that are unrelated to the Windows desktop.

If you were an IT Director or CTO of a company with 100+ knowledge workers, would you want to buy an OS that doesn't run tons of desktop applications and which you can only go to one source for buying hardware and Apple charges high premiums most of the time.

Running VMWare Fusion or Parallels ontop of Mac OSX is rather slow and so isn't bootcamp and that is the reason I dumped one of my two Apple computers and got a quad processor all in one Windows machine for $600.

And lastly the only reason, you can't virtualize Apple OSX is simply because Apple doesn't allow you. They are a very closed proprietary platform.
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      10-13-2012, 12:45 PM   #28
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If you are one person that love the car, takes care of it and keep it in a showroom shape (because this is your hobby) then purchase it. Lease is not financial viable for people who takes care of their car.
I owned all kind of brands in my life, I always got back a good amont of money back.
I keep them in an supreme condition so:

- I never got problems, regardless of reliability. In most cases reliability is very well influenced by the character of the owner.

- I always got a lot more then what the market said (over 30% more), once the car was seen was bought on spot. You think is not worth it because the market says so, have a good day, the right guy who knows me or see what it needs to be seen, will buy it. It is a huge difference between a maintained car and a car prepared for sale.

- yes, you may drive a new one, people always admire very well mainained cars. I have new and old, I always get offers on my cars. Allways.

- actually brings me money back if, either if I sell it or keep it because I am taking care of them.
Some people treat their cars like they didn't pay for them, but that's their choice I guess, for me maintenance is a hobby and I love doing it. A clean and well mainained car is a very happy car.

I know the business very well, I know the difference between the lease and finance, if you can not write something off, lease is not for you. However, if you are a guy who just turn the key and vacuuming, washing and polishing is sci-fi for you, then lease is maybe for you. If you can afford it it's up to you, but that depends on your priorities.
The new car gizmo's, warranty and stuff, it's so and so, if you keep the car for 5-6 years you may not have the latest Iphone connection but that's ok, I bought the 2012 X1 when they just arrived in Canada and now they have new mirrors and facelift. What you will do? Dump the lease for a new bumper style? What you buy today might be old tomorrow, but that's ok.
Anyway, I have seen people out there that drive a BMW for status but have poor shoes on their feet...
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      10-13-2012, 10:35 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wcinvest
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMWrules7 View Post
NEW POST


Ugh, for fear of hihacking my own thread, please forgive me. Look, Apple has meat on its bones.

Microsoft, on the other hand does not. Yes, companies use the Microsoft desktop and there is a vigorous movement to virtualize the desktop too.

Doesn't the fact that you can easily virtualize 200 Microsoft desktops on two redundant blade servers tell you a lot about the emptiness of the Microsoft desktop?

Today, very few things run natively on the windows desktop. Most people use the Microsoft desktop for email access and browser access. Excepting for some heavy duty photoshoppers, the Microsoft desktop offers nothing much.

Now, turn to apple. It is all unix based. The spoke desktop is clean, efficient, and beautiful. Not to mention, you can run your cruddy windows inside your apple as a VM. You cannot, however, run the apple OS inside of a windows box. That alone says a lot about the crappiness of windows.

Microsoft has failed at just about every attempt at new technology. Why? Because it always ties some critical element to some closed Microsoft protocol.

Anyway, Microsoft is a has been. Their cash will eventually dwindle and some final scam will be exposed that will eventually destroy what's left.

Maybe apple is too costly right now for investment, but that's no reason to blow your money on a company on the verge of a sunset.
Sorry for continuing to get off topic so if you want to read about the X1 ignore this post.

I suspect Microsoft to have around 95% of the desktop market worldwide so they must be doing something right. On the other hand, Apple iPhone has actually been losing market share rather dramatically to Android for every iPhone now sold, there are 3 or 4 Android phones sold.

Even if desktop virtualization unexpectedly takes off, Microsoft still gets all of their licensing fees. Within Windows desktop environments, there has been virtualization such as Citrix farms for many years. From what I've seen within various IT organizations, it only increases Microsoft's sales since users still have their own Windows desktop which is licensed and then they pay for an additional Citrix/Microsoft licenses.

Very little things run natively on Windows desktop? Companies like SAP and Oracle -- two of the biggest software providers in the world -- have huge installed bases using some of their desktop applications. And obviously Microsoft Office(Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Visio, Outlook etc.) is basically on 85%+ of corporate desktop computers.

It is simply untrue in a corporate setting that the desktop is just a browser and email. Go into literally any pharmaceutical company or biotech or financial services companies today and you will see many different desktop applications that are not web based.

The last company I worked had well over 100+ different desktop applications for under 300 employees. I personally worked with 25+ over them at one time or another. Not every employee had every application but most of these application only ran on Windows XP or Windows 7. When a software vendor only expects to sell an application to 3-20 users at a company or they want the best performance, they often do not make it web based and they don't bother supporting Mac OSX.

In addition, Microsoft has the whole Xbox franchise which shows they can do well in new market segments that are unrelated to the Windows desktop.

If you were an IT Director or CTO of a company with 100+ knowledge workers, would you want to buy an OS that doesn't run tons of desktop applications and which you can only go to one source for buying hardware and Apple charges high premiums most of the time.

Running VMWare Fusion or Parallels ontop of Mac OSX is rather slow and so isn't bootcamp and that is the reason I dumped one of my two Apple computers and got a quad processor all in one Windows machine for $600.

And lastly the only reason, you can't virtualize Apple OSX is simply because Apple doesn't allow you. They are a very closed proprietary platform.
NEW POST


"Even if desktop virtualization unexpectedly takes off..."

Where have you been during the past 4 years? You are wrong when you suggest that newer apples are slow running a windows vm. That is just nonsense.

It sounds like you are confused on the difference between client and server.

Are you even aware that apple sold several million iPhone 5s in the last few weeks?

This will be my last post on computers. Lets get back on topic.
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      10-14-2012, 09:43 PM   #30
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NEW POST


"Even if desktop virtualization unexpectedly takes off..."

Where have you been during the past 4 years? You are wrong when you suggest that newer apples are slow running a windows vm. That is just nonsense.

It sounds like you are confused on the difference between client and server.

Are you even aware that apple sold several million iPhone 5s in the last few weeks?

This will be my last post on computers. Lets get back on topic.
This will be my last response since I will have made my points by the end of this message and I do need to focus on things other then computers.

I am certainly not confused about desktop computers vs servers. I am actually taking two different classes in distributed computing right now towards a graduate degree in Computer Science. And I've personally been responsible for maintaining from an application perspective about 20 virtual servers running on a VMware ESX host and around 5 Dell physical servers in the very recent past as a part of my core job responsibilities.

As for desktop virtualization which is industry shorthand lingo for virtualization of traditional desktop computers, I am talking about in the corporate world and I was addressing the point that Microsoft desktops can be virtualized on blade servers. Technically, they obviously can be and its a way for IT organizations to maintain even tighter control and easily backup "desktops" but its just not happening much at all in the business world since even with those virtual desktops, you still need to access them from some sort of terminal that costs money.

With VMware Fusion or Parallels in Mac OS X environments, virtualization is pretty good for basic tasks like Microsoft Word or web browsing but its too slow IMHO for software development or other tasks that sometime really tax the CPU.

I don't dispute the huge and very impressive profits Apple is making right now from the iPhone but I think Apple is an extremely risky investment at this price level given this trend of Android taking over worldwide.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wo...rket-Share.png

And Android has only gotten stronger worldwide since then.

For the record, I think Apple's stock is pretty fairly priced right now and they should continue to make great money with the iPhone for 2-3 more years before those profits start to go down. I don't thing the smart phone market is drastically different then the traditional cell phones, digital cameras, computer, plasma/lcd tv, DVD player, and CD player markets. In all of those other electronic markets, profit margins eventually fell by quite a bit as competition heated up and the markets matured.
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      10-15-2012, 12:02 AM   #31
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With VMware Fusion or Parallels in Mac OS X environments, virtualization is pretty good for basic tasks like Microsoft Word or web browsing but its too slow IMHO for software development or other tasks that sometime really tax the CPU.
Since VT-x and VT-d, the CPU slowdown is down to a couple of percent - less than the step up to a slightly faster CPU.
The reason why software development works best on bare metal is IO. Especially Microsoft Visual Studio is a huge IO hog, and with mainly random writes, you take performance hits unless you give your VM dedicated hardware storage.

Disclaimer: I'm a senior system administrator, running several dozen servers with both bare metal, paravirtualized and fully virtualized hosts, on four continents. Hard experience, not just classes.
Our measurements of CPU/IO use for VS development in VMs showed an average ratio of 3-5% CPU utiliization and 140-240% IO utilization.

Myself, and several developers have still opted to use Linux as our main OS, with Windows and other OSes running in VMs. If nothing else because we don't have to reboot Linux every first Tuesday of the month, and take all VMs down with it. And because one task memory ballooning or causing a BSOD in Windows won't affect Linux, as it would if the situation was reversed.

That said, and to bring this slightly back into topic, BMW runs development virtualized.
And the X1 (and all other BMWs) use QNX as their OS, not Windows. Windows embedded/CE/mobile has flopped three times so far.
Even giants fall. Remember when all PCs ran OS/2 and Word Perfect? And almost all servers were IBM? Unless you can continue to deliver, the customers will switch to what's better, cheaper or both.
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      10-16-2012, 04:02 AM   #32
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back to the discussion about leasing / HP / buying,
depends on your usage.
In Australia we have different tax rules with regards to GST etc, therefore I'm not saying whats best.
this one I have on a 3 yr to $0 residual but only get to deduct the depreciation portion based on business %km travelled ... complex for me ... easy for my accountant ...
advantage for me is that at the end of the 3 years I sell the car without having to worry about finance issues, I normally drive it for a year afterwards and then get itchy feet to get a new ride
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