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Your buy price should be lower than invoice considering there is $1250 in incentives. I would offer $41800. That gives them a $1k profit on the car, plus they also make money on the financing and there is some profit on holdback.
Then there are other factors to consider. For example, I got my car for under invoice and I only get $750 in incentives since I was not eligible for the loyalty cash. However my dealer has an unreasonable $300+ doc fee. Anything more than about $50 is pure profit for them, so I counted that when I was calculating what I was going to offer them.
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