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      10-12-2012, 05:51 AM   #25
wcinvest
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Drives: BMW X1 (awaiting delivery)
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: San Francisco Bay area

Posts: 26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monterra View Post
True I'm not factoring in cost of maint/repairs over the last 2 years, 20k. If you're good/lucky you won't need brakes in that time. Barring something else major failing I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about- depending on the model/complexity. $500-$700 on a couple more visits seems reasonable. Any tire I've owned is pretty well shot after 30k- I don't know what their allowance on this is but I'm pretty sure they don't take baldinis. Yes, the longer you keep the more you'll save generally but years 7-9 could be scary/expensive when heavier major components start to fail.

Question wc: What are your payments on your X1s? 36k over 9 on three consecutive leases is $333/mo all in- you either got the best lease deal ever or you're in some serious denial. You're already talking about loyalty and a CCA rebate that doesn't exist yet I'm guessing when you turn the car in early- probably even worse financially. Your numbers are extremely optimistic. My point on taxes is that the portion paid on two leases plus two bank fees is equal to or greater than that of one purchase of a like-kind over 6 and not even close in states where the trade-in value is deducted off your new car's taxable amount. Oh, lest I forget the $350 disposition fee when you turn in. So, 2k in fees on two leases plus tax on about half of the car, 2/5s of the car, its still more regardless.

When it comes to $, leasing=losing with one exception- if you can deduct it as an expense.
Sorry for the length of this post, I hope it helps someone in the lease vs buy decision. If you buy the car which I plan to do before selling it or lease another BMW, there is no $350 disposition fee at all.

My payments on the lease are $349 per month which includes 8.75% tax. I put down the max 7 security deposits which I will get back and a little more cash.

My current residual value and lease payment is based upon a 3 year 36000 mile lease but I do expect to drive the car less then that which will help my resale value.

Before going into additional details, let me give you my recent car history which shows you how frugal I am and how good I am at getting cars that retain their value whether buying used or new. In 1996, I bought a 1987 Toyota Corolla used for a very low price with around 72,000 miles. I drove it a little over 50,000 miles in 5 years before finally upgrading. It's depreciation in those 5 years was less then $4000 and maintenance was ridiculously low as well.

My last two cars after that Corolla were a 2001 VW GTI 1.8T, a brand new design that year, and 2008 Jetta 2.0T Wolfsburg. The Jetta was a new value edition model with the Audi 2.0T engine and DSG transmission. Thanks to a $1000 rebate as a returning VW customer, I paid roughly $22,000 for that 2008 Jetta after taxes. 66,000 miles later I expect to sell it for at least $12500 and probably a little bit more based upon everything I am seeing in my local area. So basically $9500 in depreciation for driving the car 66,000 miles. I did even better with my GTI.

I don't expect even lightly optioned X1's to be quite as good as my last two purchased cars in percentage terms since near luxury cars don't do as well in general but it should still be excellent for a variety of factors I've outlined previously.

In your calculations of buying, you have to also factor in what you could have done with that money investing it. I'm pretty good investing and can get a 6-7% return fairly easily before taxes without that much risk.

My expected payments including down payments is roughly $14,500 for the lease but that figure assumes an _absurdly low_ in my estimation $20,200 residual value. Remember, I did much better then expected depreciation on my last two new cars. I factored in another $1500 for my airfare to do ED, hotel expense and a tank of tank of gas in Germany. (Frankly this $1500 number is actually lower in my particular case but I'm calling it $1500 since the American Express points that I'm using have value) (I am not staying in luxurious hotels) So, that is $16000 spent over 3 years if you believe BMWs residual value percentage which is a little more accurate for heavily optioned X1 cars then lightly optioned cars like mine.

I believe in late September 2015, a lightly optioned BMW X1 with Navigation and satellite radio with around 30,000 miles sold private party will fetch roughly $24,000 via Craigslist in the San Francisco Bay area and not $20,200. And I will be pocketing that $3800 difference. Remember, the X1's will have had 2 or 3 price increases by BMW during that time period. So, if my figure is correct, I would have only spent $12000 to lease the X1 for 3 years and I will have had a nice trip to Germany/Europe thrown in as well. This $12,000 figure would be much worse then what I did on my previous two new cars so given my past history, I don't think its a crazy number at all. In 2015 if a brand new X1 with navigation/satellite radio is going for 34,000 new which it should be in that ballpark given modest price increases by BMW, I think there will be some used car buyers willing to pay around $24,000 for used model with just 30,000 miles.

And my next 1 or 2 leases, should be at least $1250 lower in today's dollars since I will qualify for the BMW CCA rebate which isn't available on the X1 right now but should be available in about 6-12 months and BMW's $750 returning customer rebate that they run all of the time. I actually may even qualify for a 3rd rebate/option credit since I am going to graduate school on a part time basis and BMW occasionally has rebates geared towards college graduates like they did in the late summer of this year.

I actually did a decent amount of analysis to come up with the residual figure of $24,000 including looking at 2009 328's still under warranty with around 30,000 miles. And I'm extremely confident that the X1 28i's will have better real world residual value then the typical 2009 328i's do today.

The Bay area is absolutely flooded with 328i's and when my X1 is coming off of lease in 2015, it will be one of the relatively few X1's sold private party in the entire area.
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