If you can't write off mileage as an expense, buy and hold (5+) almost always makes more sense- to me anyway. In general the more new car transactions you make the more you'll lose, BMW loves this- who wouldn't? Leasing forces the hand after 3 years, forces timing (maybe that new model isn't out yet), fees, too many miles (+10k per year!)you lose, too few miles you lose unless you buy it out where you'll probably still lose but instead you'll just get another new one and lose even more. Love cars, hate losing ie. leasing. Clearly many disagree but I think many of those who can't write anything off are probably driving more car than they can truly afford. In short the people who can least afford to lose more $ on auto expenses are doing just that by leasing because they can swing the ~450/mo payment with a few k down. That's ~20k to drive a ~40k car no more than 30k miles for 3 years? Sold to you, take 2 while you're at it.
2015 Valencia Msport X1 sdrive28i
2014 Mazda CX-5 AWD gt
2009 Montego/terra 128i 6MT (ouch)...great car